7.3Predicting Release Readiness

The Release Readiness Score

A composite metric that combines multiple quality indicators into a single go/no-go signal.

Release Readiness Score = Weighted Average of:
  - Test pass rate (weight: 3)
  - Critical bug count = 0 (weight: 5)
  - Requirement coverage (weight: 3)
  - Performance benchmarks met (weight: 2)
  - Security scan passed (weight: 4)

Example:
  Test pass rate: 98% (3 x 0.98 = 2.94)
  Critical bugs: 0 (5 x 1.0 = 5.00)
  Requirement coverage: 95% (3 x 0.95 = 2.85)
  Performance: Met (2 x 1.0 = 2.00)
  Security: Passed (4 x 1.0 = 4.00)

  Score = (2.94 + 5.00 + 2.85 + 2.00 + 4.00) / (3 + 5 + 3 + 2 + 4)
        = 16.79 / 17
        = 98.8%

  Threshold: > 90% = GREEN, 75-90% = YELLOW, < 75% = RED

Predicting When You Will Be Ready

If you are not yet at the threshold, you can use the trend to predict when you will be:

Current release readiness: 72% (YELLOW)
Improvement rate: +4% per day (based on last 5 days)
Target: 90%
Gap: 18%
Predicted ready date: 18 / 4 = 4.5 days from now

If release is in 3 days: NOT READY unless acceleration occurs
If release is in 5 days: LIKELY READY with current pace